Canada’s Globe and Mail yesterday ran an article about the various fallouts from the Mumbai attacks.

Politically, the next few days are critical for Manmohan Singh’s Congress Party government, as their handling of the crisis could result either in the population rallying around the government, as in America after 9/11, or repudiating it in elections, as in Spain after 3/11.

Economic effects aren’t expected to be that severe (at least not compared to the Reckoning), although short term blows to both consumer confidence and tourism, especially in Mumbai, are expected. I’d expound more but understand little enough of economics as it is, although I invite more economically inclined readers to comment on this implication.

More interesting, and very very dangerous, is the effect on the dance of death most people refer to as Indo-Pakistani relations. The perennial game of mutual recrimination is already well underway, and the two sides already nearly came to blows over the bombing of the Indian Parliament back in 2001. The Zardari government is of course strenuously denying any Pakistani involvement, although CNN is reporting that a hijacked boat has been recovered containing phones with calls logged to Jalalabad. With the Pakistani government already intensely fragile in dealing with its own terrorism problem, the Indian government needing to make a show of force to reassure its own population, and an ongoing leadership vacuum in the United States, things are ripe to go very bad, very quickly. Which of course strengthens my own opinion that whatever combination of groups was behind this is likely bred within India with the aim of defusing any post-Musharaff Indo-Pakistani detente.

EDIT: CNN article states the city called was Jalalabad, but that city being in Afghanistan it seems unlikely. Wikipedia confirms the terrorists actually called Karachi.

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