E-Day Minus Five
Just a a quick and dirty tonight. My friend Brian over at Saint Superman has decided to enrage his lord and engage in a bit of electoral divination, and while my urge to follow suit is strong, I will forbear, for the following reasons:

The field of battleground states is ever-shifting. Just yesterday Real Clear Politics added Georgia to the tossup column, while several other sites have Arizona as being far too close to be a candidate’s home state. Meanwhile both Montana and North Dakota entered play within the last 7 days, and in this environment of electoral paradigms shifting without a clutch making any kind of prediction is akin to trying to forecast the weather in Virginia 24 hours in advance, a feat that has so far proven largely impossible. And this is to say nothing of the fact that the actual pollsters have far more data at their disposal and therefore a greater understanding of what’s actually driving the numbers, while most political laymen (myself mostly included) have little more to work with than the following tenets:

More Money = More Ads

Obama has 8 metric fucktons of both

Therefore, numbers will move in Obama’s direction.

It’s a crude measure, but so far seems to prove correct on at least the basic levels, and especially in a society as deeply ad-driven as our own. One only has to look as far as my last post for an example of this. But of course there are other, smaller, far more numerous factors doing their part to bump the numbers in various directions, and such minutiae (or at least lack of access to them) prevents us from making anytihng more than a GUESS.

Having said all that I would like to be able to claim a few “I told you so points”, so I’ll say a few words on what the future may hold: I wouldn’t be surprised to see either North Dakota or North Carolina fall into the Obama column, and while I’ll be keeping an eye on Georgia it’s probably gonna stay republican, as much as I might want to forecast aforementioned GOPocalypse. This is even more true in the case of Arizona, which is weakening but won’t flip entirely before E-Day. As the percieved holder of the national zeitgeist, I would also expect Missouri to slide into the Obama column. Ohio and Florida can and will do as they wishes, and will hopefully find themselves far less strategic weapons this time out. Either way I’d rather not touch them with 30 foot poles, but they both have taken on a blue tinge.

But all of this is essentially moot, as we’re no longer really discussing whether Obama will win, but how large the margin will be, which in turn will determine the extent of his mandate.

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